'It is now or never': Voters desperate for change as coalition politics threaten municipalities

South Africans are heading into Wednesday's local government elections with a growing appetite for political change, but the record number of candidates could leave municipalities even more fragmented and vulnerable to unstable coalition governments.

Professor Purshottama Sivanarain Reddy has warned that voters are increasingly desperate to arrest the decline in local governance, describing the coming election as a defining moment for the country's democracy.

"People feel at this present time that they need to make a change. It's either now or never," he said.

The Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) has certified 136,790 candidates for the elections, a significant increase from the 95,427 who contested the 2021 local government elections.

While Reddy welcomed the increase as evidence of greater interest in local government, he warned that the proliferation of candidates would make the voting process more complicated.

The growing number of independent candidates and smaller political parties also raised questions about the fragmentation of municipal councils and their ability to govern effectively.

"It is good that we have an increase in the number of candidates, which shows that there is a greater interest in local government.

"However, the downside is that the whole ballot becomes much more complex for the voters, given the choice of candidates and the fragmented political voices," he said.

He argued that there should have been greater consolidation, particularly among independent candidates and smaller political parties.

Reddy warned that the proliferation of political voices could create further challenges for local governance and service delivery.

He expects the elections to produce more hung councils and coalition governments, with smaller parties potentially wielding disproportionate influence despite receiving relatively few votes.

Larger political parties that fail to secure an outright majority will have to negotiate with smaller parties to reach the 50% threshold needed to take control of municipalities.

But Reddy questioned whether South Africa's political parties had learnt anything from the coalition experiments that have characterised local government since 2021.

"There is nothing wrong with having coalition governments," he said, pointing to Western European countries where coalition arrangements have worked successfully at national level.

He attributed their success to greater political maturity and an understanding that the interests and preferences of voters should guide coalition negotiations.

South Africa, he argued, has largely failed to follow that approach.

Instead of prioritising what voters want, smaller parties seeking entry into coalition governments have often focused on securing political and financial rewards for themselves and their leadership.

"The emphasis seems to be more on gaining advantage for the political party in question and also trying to secure some of the higher-paid positions in local government," he said.

These positions include mayor, deputy mayor, speaker and membership of municipal executive committees.

Reddy said there had been very few instances where the electorate's preferences were seriously considered when parties chose their coalition partners.

He identified this as one of the major weaknesses of South Africa's coalition arrangements, warning that the consequences had been instability, governance failures and deteriorating service delivery.

Despite the country's difficult political and economic circumstances, Reddy expects voter turnout to improve compared with previous local government elections.

He said poor service delivery, corruption and the broader state of the economy had directly affected communities and could motivate voters to participate.

The elections, he argued, offer voters an opportunity to challenge declining governance and demand a different direction.

"All of this has impacted on the local communities, and they want to change all of this and try and arrest the decline in governance," he said.

Reddy also cautioned against expecting independent candidates and smaller political parties to make substantial electoral gains.

He believes independent candidates face limited prospects, while smaller parties are unlikely to secure significant voting power.

However, even a handful of seats could give smaller parties considerable bargaining power during coalition negotiations.

He warned that this could once again turn municipal leadership positions into bargaining chips, rather than ensuring that coalition arrangements reflect the wishes of voters.

With municipalities already battling service delivery and governance challenges, the question facing voters is whether Wednesday's election will produce the political accountability they are demanding or another cycle of unstable coalitions.

For Reddy, the urgency is unmistakable.

"It's either now or never."