Bheki Mtolo: ANC may 'permanently exit' politics by 2029

Former ANC KwaZulu-Natal secretary Bheki Mtolo has warned that the ANC could permanently exit South Africa's political space in 2029.

The ANC has slumped to third place in the province.

Mtolo, who now sits on the ANC's provincial task team, made the warning on Facebook as counting continued on Friday.

"We did everything humanly possible in this campaign. There were weeks when we could not rest at all, with long hours. I remember a day when I had to work in Dr NDZ the whole day, then drove to Kokstad for an election strategy meeting, 'Madlanga', as they termed the strategic planning team, a meeting that ended way past midnight. We did everything humanly possible.

"The results need deep, honest reflection. We are declining across the board, all over the country. It's time we conduct a proper diagnosis of the real problem and face it head-on. Without a proper diagnosis and honest, very honest, deep reflection, the ANC may permanently exit the political space in 2029," Mtolo wrote.

ANC KZN MPL Sizophila Mkhize said party members had campaigned through bullying and intimidation.

"We thank all the ANC volunteers who worked tirelessly during the campaign. We campaigned hard, under difficult circumstances, through bullying and intimidation, but we kept our heads up high. We were insulted, our mothers were insulted, but we kept calm. Our right to align with a political party of our choice was greatly violated, yet we remained firm.

"The results may not be favourable, but we must remain with the people. Let's take a rest, introspect our movement, fix our systems and strengthen our structures. Trying times need courage and resilience. The struggle continues," she wrote.

With 72% of voting districts counted in KwaZulu-Natal on Friday, 6 November morning, MK led on 34.5%.

The IFP was second on 22% and the ANC third on 21.4%. The DA had 12.1%.

MK has won outright control of Richmond, with 56.27% of the vote and 10 of 17 seats, and of Impendle.

The ANC governed both outright after the 2021 local elections.

In eThekwini, MK led on 42%, ahead of the DA on 22.4%.

The ANC was third on about 17%, with the IFP on 7%.

The ANC won 42% in the metro in 2021, and has governed it since then with the help of smaller parties.

In July, Mtolo vowed that the ANC would hold all the municipalities in the Harry Gwala region, his home region.

MK has been reported as winning the Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma municipality, and uMzimkhulu is heading for a hung council.

Nationally, with about 75% of votes counted, the ANC was on about 32%.

It still leads in six provinces, including Limpopo on 55% and the Eastern Cape on 45.9%. But it trails the DA in Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, Nelson Mandela Bay and Mangaung.

In Johannesburg, it was on 17.4%, and in Tshwane it was third on 22.1%, behind the DA and ActionSA. The ANC won 45.59% in the 2021 municipal elections, which was already its worst result.

Members of the public who responded to the two leaders' posts were unforgiving.

"Too late, too much arrogance. Y'all forgot the people and thought you're unshakable," wrote Snenhlanhla Shane.

David Khumalo wrote: "Your leadership is very arrogant, all of them. How do you call soldiers just to protect foreigners and arrest South Africans for fighting for their country, which is now invaded by people we don't even know the background of, but you are protecting them? This is nothing yet. Watch what happens in 2029, when you will be out of power completely."

Thulani Buthelezi wrote: "You all did nothing for black people. They still don't have water, yet you comrades have water tanks. Most of you are staying in Zimbali estates, Hillcrest, better places, while our people are staying in slums. Keep your GNU while we give our votes to those who have our interests at heart."

Mtolo was removed as ANC provincial secretary in February 2025, after the party's poor showing in the 2024 elections, when it won only about 17% in KwaZulu-Natal. He was kept on the provincial task team as convenor of policy, planning and monitoring.

In December 2024, he said President Cyril Ramaphosa and secretary-general Fikile Mbalula should also be held accountable for the party's decline in the province. Mbalula dismissed the remarks.

The IEC is expected to announce the final results on Sunday.