Mineral and Petroleum Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe told Parliament in March that the Strategic Fuel Fund held eight million barrels of oil in reserve.
At South Africa’s estimated consumption of about 600,000 barrels a day, that would last about 13 days.
Oil climbed to $108 a barrel on Monday after US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The price jumped more than 4%.
Ministers in the economics cluster are due to answer questions on the country’s strategic fuel stocks in the National Assembly on Wednesday.
Mantashe gave the eight million barrel figure on 25 March, in reply to a question from ANC MP Fasiha Hassan.
He said the reserve would be used “only when there is a real crisis”.
He has not given Parliament an updated figure since then.
An analysis published in the Daily Friend estimates the reserve would last about 13 days, or about 18 days if Sasol’s coal-based fuel output is included.
The reserve is crude oil. It must be refined before it can be used. Mantashe told Parliament in May that local refineries can meet only about 40% of the country’s needs.
Member countries of the International Energy Agency must hold stocks equal to 90 days of net imports.
The reserve is held at a state-owned terminal in Saldanha Bay, which can store about 45 million barrels.
Cabinet approved a draft Strategic Petroleum Stocks Policy on 1 July.
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources gazetted it for public comment on 9 July. The draft proposes that the state hold reserves covering 60 days of demand.
Licensed wholesalers and importers would have to hold 21 days of stock.
The department estimates that each day without fuel would cost the economy about R1 billion.
The draft leaves it to National Treasury and the South African National Petroleum Company to develop the financing.
No funding plan has been made public.
Energy analysts Rod Crompton and Bruce Douglas Young have estimated that rebuilding the reserve could cost R78 billion to R79 billion.
The Daily Friend analysis also points to a contradiction in the draft. Its executive summary says the state will hold 90 days of net imports.
A table later in the same document says 60 days.
South Africa has lost its reserve before. In 2015/16, the Strategic Fuel Fund sold about 10 million barrels of strategic crude to traders including Vitol, Taleveras and Venus Rays.
The Western Cape High Court later ruled the sales unlawful.
Mantashe told Parliament in March that about 60% of the country’s refined fuel is imported. Monday’s spike also adds pressure at the pump.
Central Energy Fund data published on 21 September projected October increases of about R2.83 a litre for 95 octane petrol and up to R3.01 a litre for diesel.
The department will announce the official October adjustment on Monday, 5 October. The new prices take effect on 7 October.
